Pending Home Sales Slip In May

The housing market took a breather in April.

After forging past its benchmark value of 100 in March, April's Pending Home Sales Index dropped back to 95.5, its lowest reading of the year. The data suggests fewer home resales throughout Navada and nationwide in the months ahead.

A "pending home" is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. The Pending Home Sales Index is tracked and published monthly by the National Association of REALTORS®.

As a housing market indicator, the Pending Home Sales Index is fundamentally different from other housing metrics which often make headline news.

Unlike the Existing Home Sales report, for example; or the New Home Sales report, the Pending Home Sales Index is purported to be predictor of future housing market performance. It measures the number of homes newly under contract in a given month and, because we know that 80% of homes under contract close within 60 days, the Pending Home Sales Index can foreshadow what's next for housing.

Other housing market metrics report on events which have already occurred.

Based on April Pending Home Sales Index, therefore, buyers and sellers should expect to see a pull-back in closed home sales through May and June. However, like everything in real estate, home sales remain a local market.

Even by region, performance varied : 

• Northeast Region : +0.9% from March 2012
• Midwest Region : -0.3% from March 2012
• South Region : -6.8% from March 2012
• West Region : -12.0% from March 2012

Despite three regions posting losses, it's worth noting that, on an annual basis, all four regions showed gains, led by the Midwest at 23 percent. 

If you're shopping for homes right now, the Pending Home Sales Index suggests that the current market may be "soft", a scenario which can create ideal home-buying conditions. With mortgage rates low, home affordability has never been higher.

Pending Home Sales Index Posts Second Best Month Since April 2010

After 3 consecutive months of growth, the housing market appears to have eased a bit in December.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, December's Pending Home Sales Index slipped 4 percent from the month prior. The index measures the number of homes under contract to sell nationwide, but not yet sold.

Despite falling below its benchmark "100 value", December's Pending Home Sales Index is the reading's second-highest value since April 2010 -- the last month of last year's home buyer tax credit program.

In other words, the housing market continues to show signs of improvement, propelled by low home prices and the cheapest mortgage rates of all-time.

Freddie Mac's mortgage rate survey put the 30-year fixed rate mortgage at an average of 3.96% in December -- a 75-basis point improvement from December 2010. This helps to make homes more affordable nationwide.

On a regional basis, December's Pending Home Sales Index varied :

• Northeast Region: -3.1 percent from November 2011
• Midwest Region : +4.0 percent from November 2011 
• South Region : -2.6 percent from November 2011
• West Region : -11.0 percent from November 2011

But even regional data is only so helpful. Like everything in real estate, data must be local to be relevant.

Throughout the West Region, for example, the U.S. region in which pending home sales fell the most, several states must have performed better than the regional average. And, undoubtedly, there were cities, towns, and neighborhoods that experienced marked market growth.

Unfortunately, the Pending Home Sales Index can't capture that data. Nor can it identify the markets in which home sales suffered.

For today's Encinitas home buyers and sellers, therefore, it's important to understand your local market and the drivers of local activity. Reports like the Pending Home Sales Index can paint a broad picture U.S. housing but for data that matters to you, you'll want to look local.

For local real estate data, talk to an experienced real estate professional.

Pending Home Sales Drop For Second Straight Month

After a strong run to close out 2010, the market for home resales softened a bit in January.

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the Pending Home Sales Index dropped 3 percent last month, and December's figures were revised downward for a loss, too, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

A "pending home sale" is defined as a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. 

The forward-looking index is now at a 3-month low on a national level, but still well ahead of its rolling 6-month average.

Unfortunately, national data isn't overly helpful for buyers and sellers of real estate. The National Association of REALTORS® knows this, of course, and makes an effort to get more granular, supplementing the Pending Home Sales Index report with a region-by-region breakdown. 

Between December and January, only the South Region increased in sales volume. The Midwest led the losers:

• Northeast Region: -2.4%
• Midwest Region : -7.3%
• South Region : +1.4%
• West Region : -5.2%

Even still, however, regional data remains too broad to be practical. The South Region, for example, is comprised of multiple states with thousands of cities and town. The housing market dynamics of a specific neighborhood in a specific regional city will differ from that of another neighborhood in another regional city.

Real estate data must be local to be relevant.

Overall, then, what may be most telling from January's Pending Home Sales Index is how weather can influence results.

Most of the country faced drastic weather conditions in January, ranging from raging snowstorms to bitter cold. Events like that tend to put a damper on home sales, a contributing factor in why the number of new contracts fell.

Another reason is rising mortgage rates. Conforming and FHA rates rose week-by-week in January, robbing home buyers of 10% of their purchasing power. This, too, can slow down purchase activity as buyers adjust their expectations.

Looking forward, we should expect the Pending Home Sales Index to resume rising. Inclement weather doesn't kill demand; it just delays it. And mortgage rates have settled somewhat. These two factors should help release pent-up demand just as the Spring Homebuying Season gets underway.

As more buyers enter the market, negotiation leverage will shift to home sellers, pressuring Encinitas home prices higher. The lowest prices of the year -- and the cheapest financing -- could be what you see today.