Friday, July 30, 2010

30-Year Mortgage Rates Make New Lows, But Look Ready To Spike

Freddie Mac mortgage rates (January - July 2010)

No doubt you've heard that mortgage rates are low. They're lower than they've ever been in history.  The news is everywhere.

Just check out some of these headlines from the last 24 hours:

  • Mortgage rates set new lows for the 6th straight week (Reuters)
  • Mortgage rates fall again; 30-year fixed at 4.54% (Wall Street Journal)
  • Mortgage rates hit another low : 4.54% (NPR)

Fixed mortgage rates are now down more than 1/2 percent from the start of the year, and 3/4 percent from just 1 year ago. The drop has dramatically improved home affordability for home buyers in Temecula while creating refinance opportunities for existing homeowners.

From a payment perspective, a conforming, 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now cheaper by $41.94 per month per $100,000 borrowed versus July 2009.

A homeowner with a $300,000 mortgage, therefore, is saving $45,295.20 over 30 years.

Low mortgage rates rarely last long and rates appear to have troughed. After a big downhill between April and July, they're now flat. This could mean rates have finished falling, or that they're gearing up for another drop lower. Either way, if you haven't talked to your real estate agent about home affordability, or your loan officer about refinancing, it may be time to make that call.

If today's market marks the end of low rates, rates are expected to rise quickly.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Falling Consumer Confidence Helps Drag Mortgage Rates Lower. For Now.

Consumer Confidence Index July 2008-July 2010For the second consecutive month, U.S. consumer confidence is plunging. July's official reading is its lowest since July of last year and the figures run in stark contrast to just two months ago, when the index touched a multi-year high.

According to The Conference Board, July's figures are reflective of a more pessimistic consumer; one concerned about "business conditions and the labor market".

Falling confidence numbers are presumed to be poor for the economy. For homeowner and home buyers in San Diego , however, they can create opportunity.  Low confidence can influence the mortgage market in a positive manner, driving mortgage rates down.

Mortgage rates are already at their lowest levels of all-time.

The link between consumer confidence and everyday mortgage rates roots in consumer spending.

Consumer spending accounts for close to 70% of the overall U.S. economy so, the thought goes that, a less confident consumer is less likely to spend money, thereby retarding economic growth. This harms the stock markets and drives cash to bonds, including mortgage-backed bonds.

More bond demand leads bond prices to rise which, in turn, pushes mortgage rates lower.

The other side of lagging confidence is that Americans may be less likely to take new financial risks when they're feeling unsure, including buying a new home. This can then drag on the housing market, negatively impacting home prices across Navada.

Falling home values can help buyers, harm sellers, and stymie would-be refinancers.

It's tough to predict how consumer confidence data will work its way through the economy, but in the near-term, it appears to be helping mortgage rates stay low. If you're floating a mortgage rate with your lender, or contemplating a refinance, the time may be right to lock in a rate.

Low rates can't last forever.

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Case-Shiller Shows Home Price Improvement In 95% Of Cities

Case-Shiller Change In Home Values April-May 2010

Standard & Poors released its Case-Shiller Index Tuesday. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, between April and May 2010, home prices rose in 19 of Case-Shiller's 20 tracked markets.  It's the second straight month of strong Case-Shiller findings.

Also, May's numbers are a mirror-image of February's. In February, 19 of 20 markets lost value.

In its press release, the Case-Shiller staff resisted calling May's data proof of a housing recovery, noting that home values remain flat as compared to October of last year. However, there are some noteworthy numbers in the Case-Shiller report.

  1. 13 of the 20 tracked cities are showing home price improvement year-over-year
  2. Foreclosure posterchlld San Diego has now shown 13 straight months of improvement
  3. San Diego, San Francisco and Minneapolis are showing double-digit annual growth

These are all good signs for the housing market, but the Case-Shiller Index is not without its flaws. Most notably, the data is limited to just 20 cities nationwide -- and they're not even the 20 largest ones

Cities like Houston, Philadelphia, and San Jose are excluded from Case-Shiller, while cities like Tampa (#54) are not.

Another Case-Shiller flaw is that it reports on a 2-month delay.

Therefore, today is several days from the start of August but we're now reflecting on data from May. Given the speed at which the San Diego real estate market can change, May's data is almost ancient.  Today's values may be higher or lower than what Case-Shiller reports.

For home buyers, reports like the Case-Shiller Index may not be useful in making a "Buy or Not Buy" decision, but can aid in watching longer-term trends in housing.  For real-time data, talk to a real estate agent with access to local figures instead.

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

New Homes Sales Gain in June, But Gains Are Relative

New Home Supply June 2009 - June 2010

After a down month in May, the sales of newly-built homes appears back on track.

As published by the Census Bureau, June's New Home Sales report showed:

  1. A 24 percent sales volume increase from the month prior
  2. A 2-month drop in the supply of newly-built home

There are now just 210,000 new homes for sale nationwide.

June's data is a major improvement over May, but it's possible that the true "new home market" may be softer than the statistics suggest.  This is for several reasons.

First, we're comparing June's sales data to the worst month in New Home Sales history.

In May, sales of new homes totaled just 267,000 units nationwide. That's one-quarter fewer sales than in the previous worst month in New Home Sales history. May's sales levels were awful by any measure but June's improvement to 330,000 units remains second-worst sales levels ever posted.

Second, although much improved, June's new home supply of 7.6 months is elevated versus the historical norm near 6.0 months.  The last year has averaged 7.7 months.

For buyers of new homes in Encinitas , this combination of low sales volume and higher-than-normal inventory may be a positive.  It's the main reason why homebuilder confidence is reeling and the downturn has opened some doors for big discounts and deals. Free upgrades and closing cost credits can make a well-priced home even more attractive.

Plus, with mortgage rates at all-time lows and expected to rise, home affordability is may never be better.

Monday, July 26, 2010

How To Prevent Mercury Poisoning With CFL Light Bulbs

CFL bulbs require care when handling

According to the EPA, if every household in America replaced one "traditional" bulb with an energy-saving compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) light bulb, it would result in $700 million in energy cost savings each year, plus a greenhouse gas savings equivalent to that of 800,000 automobiles.

They're expensive, but CFL bulbs tend to pay for themselves in less a year, and often last for several. It's no wonder they're so popular with homeowners in Temecula.  But, CFLs also come with health risks.

 

Namely, CFL bulbs contain mercury -- an average of 4 milligrams per bulb.

 

The mere presence of mercury doesn't make CFLs dangerous. It just means that you should exercise care when handling them, and take certain precautions when disposing of them.

The Environment Protection Agency offers some tips:

  1. Screw/unscrew the bulb from the base and not the bulb to prevent breakage
  2. Never force a CFL bulb into a light socket
  3. When the bulb burns out, bring it to one of 3,106 recycling centers

The EPA website also give guidance for dealing with broken bulbs. Among the recommendations: Don’t wash mercury-covered clothing to prevent contaminating other clothing, too, and don't vacuum up the poison, either. There are special handling instructions to prevent poisoning yourself and others in your household.

The EPA's CFL safety PDF is 3 pages long and can be viewed on its Web site.

CFLs provide long-term energy and environment cost savings. And, with some common sense care, their risks to your health can be minimized.

Sunday, July 25, 2010

World's Most Craziest Jobs

This guy has a dangerous job. Someone has to do it and he does it well.

Posted via email from CarolLusidiaMorrow's Blog

Top 5 Most Expensive Houses in the World

1. The Villa La Leopolda in Nice, France: $ 398,350,000

Formerly the home of Bill Gates, but now belonging to really rather rich
Roman Abramovich, the Villa La Leopolda in Nice, France would set you back
roughly £250,000,000 ($ 398,350,000 ). Its 10 acres of lush, garden-filled
grounds require an astounding 50 gardeners to look after it along with the
best home insurance that money can buy.

2. Ira Rennert Mansion : $180,000,000.

The billionaire found of the Renco Group, Ira Rennert, owns a place in
Sagaponack, New York, and at 63 acres of grounds, is considered by many to
be the largest residential compound in the whole of America. The house
itself has 29 bedrooms, 39 bathrooms, as well as the usual gigantic dining
room, sport courts and bowling alley and contents insurance to cover it
all. The property is valued at roughly $170,000,000-180,000,000.

3. Updown Court in Surrey, UK : $140,000,000

With neighbors like Elton John and the Queen of England, Updown Court in
Surrey, UK is going to be a rather decadent household. Launched with a
price of £70,000,000 (roughly $140,000,000) and still unsold as of May
this year. Containing 24 bedrooms, each with a marble en-suite bathroom,
and an underground garage, the property is estimated to cost around
£250,000 ($500,000) a month to run, not to mention the cost of the house
insurance! Since this property located in the UK, the homeowner need to
know about Conveyancing information under the UK law. In the UK, London is
considered one of the most expensive places to own a house besides Surrey
(and of course Chelsea). There recommended property portals designed to
help you search for the top most expensive houses in London, UK and enable
you to determine whether or not the flats for sale in London are an
accommodating alternative to the traditional house buy. There's a rumor
that this house is up for sale. The new homeowner needed to make sure that
He can afford this house, rather than have to Stop Repossession because of
high debt.

4. Donald Trump Palace : $125,000,000

Donald Trump owns this 18-bedroom waterfront palace, which is listed as
costing $125,000,000. Situated in Florida, Trump says it's location in
Palm Beach is "the richest community in the world" and it doesn't seem
like he's joking! We also doubt that he's one to settle for cheap building
insurance, either.

5. Three Ponds : $75,000,000

In Bridgehampton, New York, there sits a $75,000,000 estate that has its
own golf course! Called "Three Ponds" due to the fact that it has, er,
three ponds (each stocks with an ample supply of fish, which are hopefully
included in the home insurance), and the expansive grounds also house 14
different gardens, each with their own theme!

World Interesting Facts
Interesting Facts Around the World

Posted via email from CarolLusidiaMorrow's Blog

Saturday, July 24, 2010

'Not enough good data' to back obesity drug, panelist says

"We've got to think of obesity as a disease, with 400,000 preventable
deaths each year," says one diet expert.

(CNN) -- Dr. David Edelson, a weight-loss specialist in Manhasset, New
York, hears the stories of dozens of patients each day -- most of them
grappling with serious weight problems, after a lifetime of obesity.

Along with coaching on diet and exercise, Edelson gives about half of
these patients a pair of prescriptions. One for phentermine, an
amphetamine that made up the "Phen" half of "Fen-Phen," the ill-fated diet
drug that was pulled from the market in 1997 after some users developed
heart-valve problems. Another, for topiramate, an antiseizure medication.

While Edelson creates his own combination, a company called Vivus has
developed the phentermine/topiramate combination into a new anti-obesity
drug: Qnexa (pronounced kyoo-NEX'-uh).

In one study of more than 3,000 patients, those receiving a low dose lost
on average more than 5 percent of their weight, and kept it off for a
year. Patients on a higher dose lost more than 10 percent. But the numbers
weren't enough to sway an FDA panel, which on Thursday said the drug
should not be sold because the benefits are outweighed by safety concerns
ranging from increased heart rate to thoughts of suicide to possible birth
defects.

While the drugs are not approved specifically for weight loss, "We know
they work," Edelson told CNN in a phone interview. While there are four
other medications approved to treat obesity, in Edelson's experience,
patients quickly build up resistance. "Patients tend to lose 10 or 20
pounds, but then they get stuck." With the combination, he says, they lose
two or three times the weight, and keep it off longer.

The final vote was 10-6. Dr. Abraham Thomas, a panel member and head of
the Endocrinology and Metabolism Center at Henry Ford Health System in
Michigan, voted "no" and said he was concerned that there was not enough
safety data.

"The effectiveness was extremely good, much more effective than anything
on the market. We just didn't have enough data to say the FDA should
approve it," said Thomas. "I voted 'no' because we need to make sure a
safety study gets started early."

There were several potential safety issues raised at the meeting. Eighteen
percent of patients taking Qnexa in the clinical trial dropped out because
of adverse events, compared with just 9 percent of the patients getting a
placebo.

Another flag: Patients receiving a high dose had increased heart rates, on
average.

Dr. Lamont Weide, a panel member and the chief of endocrinology at the
University of Missouri-Kansas City Medical School, said the heart-rate
finding was worrisome in light of Qnexa's likely widespread use if it were
to be approved.

"When you expand this to millions of people, people who should not be
taking the drug, will be taking it," Weide said. "If you accelerate heart
rate in someone with risk for heart attack and arrhythmias, that's a
potentially very dangerous thing."

Of the individual components, most of the discussion was focused on
topiramate. In some studies, patients on topiramate performed worse on
tests of the ability to think clearly. Other studies showed a significant
increase in suicidal thoughts.

Thursday's vote is not Qnexa's last chance at approval. The vote is
strictly a recommendation, although FDA officials usually accept the
advice of their advisory panels. A spokesman for Vivus said the drug maker
is disappointed with the vote but is close to completing a larger study
that will satisfy the safety concerns. "We're confident about the ultimate
approvability of this drug."

A final FDA decision is expected by October.

At the meeting, Dr. Sidney Wolfe of the advocacy group Public Citizen
talked about a study, published in the journal Diabetes Care three years
ago, that showed a high rate of neuropsychiatric effects for patients
using topiramate for weight loss. The authors said they did not think the
drug was appropriate for such patients.

"That should have been the end of it right there," Wolfe said Friday.

But Edelson, who says he's been using the combination since seeing it
described at a conference a year and a half ago, was dismayed by the
panel's recommendation.

"I understand they need to make sure they've done their due diligence, but
at the same time we're facing a crisis here. We're facing an army of obese
patients, and we're using a pop gun. We've got a water gun," he said in an
exasperated voice. "Finally, we have a new age tool and they're holding it
back from us. I just don't understand it."

In his experience, says Edelson, "There clearly are some side effects, but
they're mild and easily manageable by an experienced physician."

Dr. Melina Jampolis, a physician nutrition specialist and CNNHealth's Diet
& Nutrition expert, said she steers clear of medication for most of her
patients, and that weight loss drugs pose special risks.

"These medications need to be taken long-term, so you have to be a little
more conscious of the side effects," she said.

Weide agreed that the lack of long-term data was a major concern.

"I think physicians are coming to realize that obesity is a chronic
disease. It's not like a sore throat, where you take your medicine and go
off it. You're probably going to be on it for a long time," he said.

Weide said he was uncomfortable supporting approval, based on trials
lasting just a year.

"You don't want to be in position later of 'Oh, I wish I would have known,
I wouldn't have done this,'" Weide said.

Unclear is whether Thursday's vote signals a greater hesitation by the FDA
to sign off on new anti-obesity drugs. Two others, Contrave and
lorcaserin, are scheduled for hearings this year.

Contrave is another combination of older medications -- in this case, an
antidepressant and an opioid antagonist, used in anti-addiction therapy.
In theory, it could blunt the craving for food the way it blunts the
hunger for heroin or alcohol in an addict.

By Caleb Hellerman, CNN

Posted via email from CarolLusidiaMorrow's Blog

Could Shaquille O'Neal end up without a job next season?

I don't know if you guys realize it, but we're pretty close to entering a
new era in the NBA. No, not the superteam era kicked off by the Miami
Heat, though that's happening too. Rather, I'm talking about a Shaquille
O'Neal(notes)-free NBA for the first time since 1993. That's pre-Justin
Bieber being born, people. It's kind of like a big deal.

And while we knew this day would come eventually, no one figured it would
be next season. However, now that the Atlanta Hawks are signing Josh
Powell, The Diesel might end up without a team. From ESPN's Ryan Corazza:

As ESPN's Marc Stein reported earlier this week, the Hawks were the only
team with a "live" interest in Shaq, but with them signing another center
in Powell, it seems unlikely they'd also bring Shaq on board as well.

Bottom line: It's looking like Shaq needs to bite the bullet and drop his
asking price -- as well as his request for healthy playing time -- or he
may not be getting a contract at all for next season.

It's hard to even imagine what an NBA without the league's biggest
goofball would be like, but after scoring just a shade more than 600
points last year it wouldn't be terribly surprising. Shaq's one remaining
skill is being huge, and while he's very good at that, he doesn't have a
lot left to offer. Some post scoring, sure, but that often comes at the
expense of a free-flowing offense. And let's not even consider defense,
since Shaq doesn't.

That being said, odds are that someone will bite the bullet and add
O'Neal. He'd have to agree to come off the bench, but he'd also be great
at that since most backup centers aren't that good. Furthermore, he's
always a good pickup from a marketing standpoint. Everyone knows who he
is, and lots of people like him even if he does steal television show
ideas on the reg.

Of course, if O'Neal ends up unemployed he'll go down as one of the more
successful players in history. He's currently seventh in all-time scoring,
has four championships, an MVP and 15 All-Star appearances. Pretty great
career, even if it could have been exponentially better considering his
size and athleticism.

However, the true tragedy if O'Neal is forced to retire is that he will
not have had the chance to wear every purple jersey in the league. I mean,
he looked so good in his Lakers and Suns uniforms that he should really
have a shot to don the purple and black of the Sacramento Kings. Such a
flattering color.

YAHOO! Spots
By Trey Kerby

Posted via email from CarolLusidiaMorrow's Blog

8 Things Guys Notice About You Instantly

According to Cosmopolitan Magazine, you know that look where his eyes
slide past you...then turn back? Wouldn't it be great to know what stopped
him? You totally can. "There are a few things men instantly observe when
they meet a woman," says Jackie Black, PhD, author of Meeting Your Match.
Learn what they are and you can maximize your, um, assets. Then you'll
have your pick.

1. How Thick Your Hair Is
This is all about evolution. Since caveman days, dudes have been drawn to
lush locks, which signal that a woman is healthy (translation: shaggable).

2. If Your Smile Is Genuine
Sometimes your eyes crinkle a bit when you grin. Most men are good at
distinguishing the vibe of this kind of smile, which says you're relaxed
and fun.

3. The Size of Your Group
You don't want a big bunch (it'll be hard for him to approach) or just one
friend (he'll figure you wouldn't desert her to talk to him). The perfect
crew size? Three. Your two buds can keep each other company when you slip
away.

4. The Pitch of Your Voice
Studies show that men are drawn to voices in a slightly higher register
(think Kristin Bell's), probably because — yep, evolution — they're
reliable signs of youth and reproductive health.

5. Your Hip-to-Waist Ratio
Yet again, blame eons of human history. Men instinctually look for baby
mamas. If your waist is noticeably smaller than your hips, it signifies
fertility — a huge point in your favor. A wide belt will emphasize that
hourglass shape.

6. Your Glowiness
Guys associate a radiant complexion with good mental health. That's
because stress and anxiety usually cause breakouts and dull skin. So those
lotions and bronzers you sweep over your cheeks? Totally worth it.

7. What's Fake About You
Not personality-fake, but artificial-accoutrement- fake: lashes, hair
extensions, etc. To guys, these things shout high-maintenance! Not good.

8. Your Eyes
People focus on eyes more than they do on any other body part. And
dramatic eye makeup will have him zeroing in on your peepers even more.

Sources: Daniel Amen, MD, author of The Brain and Love; David Feinberg,
PhD, Assistant Professor in the Department of Psychology, Neuroscience,
and Behavior at McMaster University; Helen Fisher, PhD, Professor of
Anthropology at Rutgers University and author of Why Her? Why Him?; Lisa
Shield, dating coach in Los Angeles

Posted via email from CarolLusidiaMorrow's Blog

15 Companies with Zero Debt

Giovanny Moreano & Paul Toscano said throughout the financial crisis,
large debt loads weighed on company balance sheets and had serious
implications for the firms that let their borrowing get out of control.

Other companies, however, have a history of operating with low debt
levels, and many choose to issue no debt at all. Instead of debt, these
companies hold cash and liquid investments in order to make acquisitions,
investments and to run daily operations.

Although too much debt can quickly turn into a problem, zero debt does not
always translate to a rising stock price, as you can see from the
historical data provided in the following pages. Regardless, some
companies have been successful in turning their zero-debt situation into a
very favorable operating model.

With data from Capital IQ drawn from the most recent quarterly statements
across the S&P 500, here are 15 companies that report having no debt on
their balance sheets.

1. Google (GOOG)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $30.059 billion
YTD stock price performance: -22.32%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, +50.17% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -55.51% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +101.52% share price

2. Apple (AAPL)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $23.155 billion
YTD stock price performance: 19.53%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, +133.47% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -56.91% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +146.90% share price

3. eBay (EBAY)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $4.528 billion
YTD stock price performance: -11.64%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $200m total debt, +10.4% share price
2008: $1b total debt, -57.94% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +68.55% share price

4. Forest Laboratories (FRX)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $3.322 billion
YTD stock price performance: -12.49%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, -27.96% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -30.12% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +26.07% share price

5. Celgene Corp (CELG)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $2.952 billion
YTD stock price performance: -6.50%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $219m total debt, -19.68% share price
2008: $26m total debt, +19.63% share price
2009: $25m total debt, +0.72% share price

6. Texas Instruments (TXN)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $2.305 billion
YTD stock price performance: -4.95%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, +15.97% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -53.53% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +67.91% share price

7. Gap Inc. (GPS)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $2.481 billion
YTD stock price performance: -11.79%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $513 million total debt, +9.13% share price
2008: $188 million total debt, -37.08% share price
2009: $50 total debt, +56.46% share price

8. Juniper Networks (JNPR)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $2.317 billion
YTD stock price performance: +0.07%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $400 million total debt, +75.29% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -47.26% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +52.31% share price

9. Broadcom Corp (BRCM)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $2.044 billion
YTD stock price performance: +17.32%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, -19.10% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -35.08% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +85.44% share price

10. Electronic Arts (ERTS)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $1.996 billion
YTD stock price performance: -13.46%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, +15.98% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -72.54% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +10.66% share price

11. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $1.644 billion
YTD stock price performance: -2.56%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, -22.86% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -13.51% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +51.89% share price

12. Cognizant Tech Solutions (CTSH)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $1.433 billion YTD stock price performance: +20.14%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, -12.03% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -46.79% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +151% share price

13. Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $1.059 billion
YTD stock price performance: +4.76%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, +22.99% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -60.51% share price
2009: $52m total debt, +29.31% share price

14. Expeditors Int'l of Washington (EXPD)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $1.042 billion
YTD stock price performance: +14.84%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $0 total debt, +10.32% share price
2008: $0 total debt, -25.54% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +4.51% share price

15. Novell Inc (NOVL)

Total debt: $0
Cash & ST investments: $979.6 million
YTD stock price performance: +48.67%

Historical Debt and Price Levels, Per Year
2007: $600m total debt, +10.81% share price
2008: $126m total debt, -43.38% share price
2009: $0 total debt, +6.68% share price

Photo: Shutterstoc

YTD performance is as of market close on 7/20/10.

CNBC.com

Posted via email from CarolLusidiaMorrow's Blog

MissTeen USA 2010 Kamie Crawford

July 24, 2010 Kammie Crowford was crowned Miss Teen USA at Atlantis in the
Bahamas Pageant. One of her friends encouraged her to enter the Miss
Maryland Teen USA Pageant. Kammie maintained a 4.0 grade point average in
high school. She is in the pre-med program at The University of Alabama. Kimmie wants to be a dermatologist and eventually have her own skin care
line of products.

Photo from the live show Miss Teen USA

Posted via email from CarolLusidiaMorrow's Blog

"Jellin'-Melon" Snacks

This is a cool snack for the kids, a Kraft foods recipe. My grandchildren
love it......Okay, I love it too. Try it, you be the judge and tell me
what you think!

What You Need:

1 Cantaloupe, cut lengthwise in half
3/4 cup boiling water
1 pkg. (3 oz.) JELL-O Cherry Flavor Gelatin
1/2 cup cold water

Make It:

REMOVE seeds from melon halves; cut thin slice from bottom of each. Scoop
out melon flesh, leaving 1-inch-thick shells. Place upside-down on paper
towels to drain.

ADD boiling water to gelatin mix; stir 2 min. until completely dissolved.
Stir in cold water. Refrigerate 15 min. or until slightly thickened. Pour
into melon shells.

REFRIGERATE 3 hours or until gelatin is firm. Cut into wedges.

Enjoy!!!

Posted via email from CarolLusidiaMorrow's Blog

Almost invisible mirrored tree house built in Sweden

Is this amazing or what? You be the judge.....

The four-meter glass cube looks as spectacular in reality as it did in the
rendering. Kent Lindvall, co-owner of the TreeHotel, has been quoted as
saying: Everything will reflect in this -- the trees, the birds, the
clouds, the sun, everything. So it should be invisible nearly in the
forest.

And what about the birds? According to Designboom, Lindvall says that a
special film that is visible to birds will be applied to the glass.

The units are constructed from sustainably harvested wood and have
electric radiant floor heating and "a state-of-the-art, eco-friendly,
incineration toilet"

But other than that minor quibble, this appears to be a truly "eco"
resort. The owners say in Designboom:

"This is untouched forest, and we want to maintain it the same way. We
decided, for example, to not offer snowmobile safari which is very common
up here," says Selberg. Instead, wilderness walks will be offered.


All photos courtesy of Tham & Videgard.

By Lloyd Alter, TreeHugger

Posted via email from CarolLusidiaMorrow's Blog

Can Facebook Ruin Your Life

You be the Judge, as Newsweek.com reports...

This week Facebook will register its 500 millionth member. It's a
milestone both significant and meaningless: yes, it's a reminder of just
how big the social-media giant has become, but really—did we need
reminding? That Facebook is a part of many Americans' daily lives is
clear. But how it's affecting those lives is still being examined. We
know that Facebook can be good for your health, and that it can make
everything from networking to sharing photos easier. But there's also a
potentially sinister side, even aside from dubious privacy issues. Below,
10 ways that Facebook can do more harm than good.

1. You'll be reunited with your biological parents. This can be good news,
but it's not always. Take Prince Sagala, who found her biological children
on Facebook—children she alleges were kidnapped more than a decade ago by
her ex-husband. The mom and kids are now reunited. The only problem: the
kids grew up with their dad and don't want anything to do with the parent
who now has custody. And in an even more horrifying story, Aimee Sword was
sentenced to nine to 30 years in prison recently for sexually abusing her
15-year-old biological son, whom she tracked down on Facebook.

2. Your creditors can track you down. Creditors use Facebook as a way to
both track the movements of debtors and keep their eyes on any potential
assets that could be seized to cover those debts. At first, lenders may
use Facebook to determine whether you're a worthy candidate for a loan.
But should you come to owe a creditor money, the company can track you
down and discover your assets by monitoring your Facebook feed.

3. Your insurers can deny your claims. Remember the woman who was
receiving workers' compensation for depression, only to be "outed" by
Facebook pictures of her smiling? Her insurance benefits were cut off,
with insurers saying that her photos showed she was ready to return to
work. That's left attorneys who argue for disability benefits concerned.
Many now advise against giving away too much on Facebook.

4. Your ex can use it against you in a divorce. Facebook is a popular tool
for divorce attorneys, who comb pages of their clients' spouses for
evidence of neglect, infidelity, or deception. (One study suggests that
Facebook comes up in one out of five new divorce petitions). Mashable says
a woman lost custody of her children after her ex proved she was spending
time tending her crops on Farmville instead of spending quality time with
her kids, while divorce lawyers have given multiple interviews extolling
the site's virtues as a way to air damaging dirty laundry.

5. It could make you depressed. Researchers from Stony Brook University in
New York found that teenage girls who spend the most time discussing their
lives with friends were more likely to be depressed. Apparently, spending
too much time dwelling on gossip and your problems can make you feel
worse, not better. The researchers didn't study Facebook in particular,
but they indicated that social-networking sites such as Facebook made it
easier for people to be in constant contact with friends and perpetuate
the unhealthy discussions.

6. It can cost you a job. A British survey of employers found that half of
those polled had turned down job candidates once something unsavory about
that candidate surfaced on Facebook. (Examples include tales of
drunkenness, photos of illegal activity, and bad grammar.) In the U.S., 20
percent of employers admit to scoping out the Facebook pages of potential
job candidates, while 9 percent say they're going to start soon.

7. It can out you to your family. Even if you're discreet on Facebook,
your loose-lipped friends might not be and could post comments on your
wall that betray your secrets. But there are also more insidious outings
going on: MIT students designed an algorithm that successfully pinpointed
gay users by analyzing how many of their friends were gay.

8. It can make it easier for your stalker or abusive partner to follow
your movements. Let's be honest: if there weren't Facebook, abusers would
find another trigger to set off their rage. But Facebook has made it
easier for these people to keep tabs on their victims and respond to their
movements, even after the victim has tried to sever ties. In one
particularly sad case, a woman who changed her Facebook status to "single"
was killed by her husband, from whom she had separated. After seeing her
status, he broke into her home and stabbed her repeatedly.

9. You can be sued for libel. There are already several cases of libel
suits over content posted on Facebook. In Britain, where libel is easier
to prove than in the U.S., a businessman won £22,000 when a former
classmate created a fake profile full of defamatory information.
Stateside, an Ohio-area band sued a Facebook "hate group," and a Michigan
towing company sued a student who created a Facebook page alleging that
the company tows legally parked cars. (The company says those claims are
false.) So far, the law appears to be on the poster's side. But it's still
a hassle.

10. Your kids could be targeted by predators. After a teenage girl in
England was murdered by a sex offender who posed as a teenager on
Facebook, the British version of the site added a "panic button" that
allows teens to report any unwanted attention—including
cyber-bullying—directly to the authorities. But the button is not yet on
U.S. or other international versions of Facebook, and it's unclear whether
the company plans to add it.

Food for thought.

Posted via email from CarolLusidiaMorrow's Blog

Angelina Jolie in "Salt"

The No. 2 movie "Salt" opened in 3,612 theaters. A Sony Pictures film
"Salt" staring Angelina Jolie, who is perfect for the part. Angelina plays
Evelyn Salt, a CIA operative who is accused of being a Russian spy and
then tries to evade arrest while being hunted down by the U.S. government.

It was said that Tom Cruise was offered the part originally and could not
fulfill the part due to other obligations. In my opinion Angelina was best
fit for this film. Go see this film and you be the judge!


Credit: AP Photo/Matt Sayles

Posted via email from CarolLusidiaMorrow's Blog

Friday, July 23, 2010

Existing Home Sales Drop In June But Hint At Support For Higher Price Tiers

Existing Home Supply (June 2009 - June 2010)Consistent with most post-home buyer tax credit housing news, the National Association of Realtors® says Existing Home Sales eased lower last month.

An "existing home" is a home that cannot be considered new construction.

The 5 percent drop in sales from May to June was expected, but a closer look at the month's data reveals some interesting trends.

First, repeat buyers accounted for 44 percent of home resales in June, up from 40 percent in May. That's a healthy increase for just 4 weeks' time and the tax credit is a likely catalyst. First-timer buyers bought starter homes owned by former first-timers, who were then free to "move up" to larger, more expensive property.

Housing markets can be trickle-up and, not coincidentally, the jumbo/luxury housing market is now in the midst of rebound.

Second, June's "distressed sales" accounted for 32 percent of all home resales, up from 31 percent in May.

A figure like this hints at the large role foreclosures continue to play in a San Diego home buyer's home search strategy.  And why not? The National Association of Realtors® suggests that distressed homes are sold at a 15 percent discount.

Lastly, take note that home inventories are rising. June's 8.9 months of supply is the highest in 10 months. Excess supply leads home prices lower, all things equal.

Overall, the Existing Home Sales data from June is a mixed bag. There's support for the middle- and upper-price tiers, but a growing overhang of supply. The market looks favorable for buyers given low mortgage rates and strong negotiation leverage.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Yes, You Can Still Get A Mortgage If You're Pregnant

The New York Times ran an important story this week concerning pregnancy and mortgage approvals. Titled "Need a Mortgage? Don't Get Pregnant", the article discussed the difficulties that expecting and recently-expanded families are having with their mortgage financing.

NBC's The Today Show picked up the story as well, as shown in the 3-minute clip above.

The crux of the issue is that maternity/paternity leave often leads to a change in household income and mortgage lenders will no longer assume one or both parents will go back to work full-time.  The loss of income can raise a household's debt-to-income ratio to unlendable levels.

Now, your loan officer cannot ask you about a pregnancy; such questions would be in violation of Equal Credit Opportunity Act. But he can ask if whether you expect your future employment and income situation to change. This would be a perfect time to broach the topic. And you should. If you're found to have withheld employment and income information from your lender at a later date, it could result in an immediate loan denial plus a loss of earnest monies paid.

Across both pieces, though, the prevailing message is this: Families concurrently planning to (1) have a baby and (2) buy a home should be up-front and forthcoming with their loan officers. Financing is often still available for families expecting an addition -- there's just some extra paperwork though which to work.

Be prepared for that paperwork and you're more likely to get your loan.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Housing Starts Ease 0.7 Percent In June -- 7x Better Than The Headline Data

Housing starts July 2008 - June 2010

Single-family Housing Starts eased lower last month, falling by 0.7 percent from May, or 3,000 units nationwide.

A "housing start" is a home on which construction has started.

June's Housing Starts data is somewhat soft and may partially explain why home builder confidence dropped to its lowest level since April 2009, but for buyers and sellers in Encinitas , the Housing Starts report is not nearly as bad as headlines say.

This is because when the press reports on Housing Starts, it doesn't single out single-family homes. The press lumps every type of home into a single, giant reading. As a result, news outlets are reporting Housing Starts down 5 percent -- a somewhat misleading figure.

The 5 percent figure is actually a combination of 3 separate housing types:

  1. Single-Family Housing Starts
  2. Multi-Unit Housing Starts (2-4 Units)
  3. Apartment Building Housing Starts (5 or more units)

But, single-family homes are what most Americans purchase. This is why the single-family starts data is more relevant than the combined figure commonly reported by the press. 2-4 units and apartment buildings are a different realm of buyer.

That said, though, we can't even be sure that June's Single-Family Housing Starts report is accurate. As noted in the Department of Commerce's press release, the data's margin of error is 10.7 percent which means the reported results are of "no confidence".

In other words, there is no statistical evidence to prove the actual change was different from zero.

If Housing Starts did, in fact, drop in June, it will help to reduce the Eastlake housing inventory, which will provide support for local home values. For home sellers, this could be good news. Fewer homes for sale means less competition for buyers.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Sagging Homebuilder Confidence Opens The Door For Good Deals

NAHB Housing Market Index July 2008-2010Builder confidence in the housing market slipped this month, according to the National Association of Homebuilders' monthly Housing Market Index.

The Housing Market Index is actually a weighted composite of 3 separate surveys. One measures current single-family sales; one measures projected single-family sales; and one measures traffic of prospective buyers.

All three surveys were down in July:

  • Single-Family Sales : From 17 (June) to 15 (July)
  • Single-Family Project : From 22 (June) to 21 (July)
  • Buyer Foot Traffic : From 13 (June) to 10 (July)

The HMI's July reading of 14 puts confidence at its lowest point since April 2009.

For home buyers in San Diego , a drop in builder confidence could create an opportunity for negotiation.

Remember, it wasn't too long ago that most builders were flush with home inventory, unable to find willing buyers. To help move product at that time, builders dropped prices and offered incentives including free upgrades. If confidence continues to sag going forward, home purchase deals of that nature may return -- especially as the foreclosure market gets larger.

See, in the past, builders' main competition for buyers were the existing home sellers.  Today, builders compete with the existing home sellers and the banks with REO. 

It's a terrific time to be a home buyer, in other words -- sellers are fighting for you. It's no wonder sellers have little leverage anymore. Couple that with all-time low mortgage rates and affordability for homes is at an all-time high.

If you're planning to buy a home later this year, you may want to consider moving up your time frame. The market looks ripe for good deals this summer.

Monday, July 19, 2010

25 Cities In Which To Get A Bang For Your Homebuying Buck

Affordable cities for homebuyersHome affordability is at an all-time high. Home values are still in recovery while mortgage rates continue to make new lows. But where are homes the most affordable?

CNNMoney.com recently ran a piece titled "Where Homes Are Affordable", listing 25 communities around the U.S. in which median incomes are relatively high and median homes are relatively low.  It's a housing market "bank for your buck" list.

The top 10 cities as listed by the editors:

  1. Deerfield Beach, FL
  2. Lafayette, IN
  3. San Antonio, TX
  4. Deltona, FL
  5. Spring, TX
  6. Glendale, AZ
  7. Avondale, AZ
  8. Bolingbrook, IL
  9. Fishers, IN
  10. Des Moines, IA

Of the top 10, 2 picks are from the Southeast; 4 are from the Midwest; and 4 are from the Southwest.  2 are "major" cities and the rest are suburbs of bigger cities.  Lafayette stands lone as a college town.

The rest of CNNMoney.com's 25 cities follow a similar pattern -- larger suburbs geographically concentrated in the Midwest and Southwest. Surprisingly, though, New Jersey and Virginia do find themselves represented.  Even the expensive Eastern Seaboard has its good buys.

Friday, July 16, 2010

The Fed's June Minutes Keep Mortgage Rates In Rally-Mode

FOMC June 2010 MinutesAccording to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates made new all-time lows this week and the good news is that rates look poised to fall even more.

Since the Federal Reserve's release of its June 2010 meeting minutes Wednesday, mortgage rates are dipping even more and one of the main reasons why is because of some choice Fed words.

If you've never seen a Fed Minutes release, it reads academic. The document is page after page of stats, facts and figures about the U.S. economy, accompanied by an in-depth recap of the intra-Fed member debates that shape the nation's monetary policy.

At 7,333 words, the June Fed Minutes is the unabridged version of the more well-known, post-meeting press release.  The corresponding press release was just 360 words.

As it turns out, Wall Street didn't like what it read in the minutes.  Specifically:

  1. The Fed expects below normal growth through 2012
  2. The Fed's outlook for employment has dipped
  3. Credit conditions are easing only slowly

Furthermore, the Fed said its action may be needed if the economy were "to worsen appreciably".

Overall, the economic optimism the Fed displayed earlier this year appears to be waning. The economy is moving forward -- just not as quickly as expected.  That should bode well for mortgage rates and home shopping in Encinitas.

Mortgage rates were down Wednesday afternoon and Thursday and remain historically low. All it would take to reverse rates, however, is a run of positive news on jobs, growth, and consumer spending.  Therefore, if you know you need to lock a mortgage rate in the near-term, it may be a good time to make the call. 

Lock your mortgage rate and move on.

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Foreclosure Activity Slows Again In June 2010

Foreclosures per capita, June 2010

313,841 foreclosure filings were made in June, according to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac. The figure represents a 3 percent drop from May and 7 percent drop from June of last year. However, foreclosure filings remain relatively high nationwide.

June marks the 16th straight month the filings topped 300,000. 1 in every 411 U.S. homes received some form of notice last month with foreclosure density varying wildly from state-to-state.

Like everything else in real estate, it seems, foreclosures are a local phenomenon.

The states with the highest foreclosures per capita were:

  • Nevada : 1 foreclosure filing per 88 homes
  • Florida : 1 foreclosure filing per 171 homes
  • Arizona : 1 foreclosure filing per 189 homes

The states with the lowest foreclosures per capita were:

  • Vermont : 1 foreclosure filing per 26,051 homes
  • West Virgina : 1 foreclosure filing per 8,058 homes
  • South Dakota : 1 foreclosure filing per 6,528 homes

Overall, 40 states beat the national Foreclosure Per Capita average and 10 states fell below. The sheer volume of REO, though, is creating interesting buying opportunities for first-timer buyers, move-up buyers, and real estate investors in Temecula.

Homes bought from banks are usually less expensive than non-foreclosure homes. This is one of the major reasons why distressed sales account for roughly 30 percent of all home resales. Less expensive, though, doesn't always mean "cheaper". Foreclosed homes are often sold as-is and may be defective or otherwise uninhabitable.

Making repairs to get these homes into "living condition" can be costly.

Therefore, if you're buying a foreclosed home, make sure you know what you're buying before you make your bid. Have a certified professional inspect the home to check for damage, and consider enlisting the help of a real estate agent to assist with negotiations and management of the contract.

The process of buying a foreclosed home is different from buying a typical resale. Make sure you do your homework.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Mandatory Loan Fees Keep Borrowers From Getting Their Absolute Lowest Rate

Loan-level pricing adjustments add to mortgage costsConforming mortgage rates may be posting all-time lows this week, but that doesn't mean you'll be eligible for them. You may have already called your loan officer and found this out the hard way.

It's because of a federally-mandated mortgage-pricing scheme known as "loan-level pricing adjustments".

In effect since April 2009, loan-level pricing adjustments are changes to a loan's base rate and/or fee structure based on that loan's inherent risk to Wall Street. It's similar to auto insurance pricing adjustment in that a sports car, all things equal, will cost more to insure than a comparably-priced minivan.

More risk, more cost.

In mortgage lending, loan risk can be loosely grouped into 5 categories. Mortgage applications in San Diego featuring any of the five traits are subject to price adjustments:

  1. Credit Score (i.e. the borrower's FICO is below 740)
  2. Property Type (i.e. the subject property is a multi-unit home)
  3. Occupancy (i.e. the subject property is an investment home)
  4. Structure (i.e. there is a subordinate/junior lien on title)
  5. Equity (i.e. mortgage insurance is required by the lender)

Furthermore, loan-level pricing adjustments are cumulative.

A 3-unit investment home will face larger adjustments than an owner-occupied 3-unit home, for example. It's these adjustments that explain why you may not be eligible for the rates you see advertised online and in the newspapers -- your particular loan may be subject to this risk-based pricing that raises your mortgage rate and closing costs.

The government's loan-level pricing adjustment schedule is public information. See what your lender and how your loan quote is made at the Fannie Mae website. Or, if you find the charts confusing, just call or email your loan officer for help with interpretation.

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Should You Refinance Your ARM, Or Let It Adjust Lower?

ARM adjustment schedule 2008-2010

If your adjustable rate mortgage is due to adjust this year, don't go rushing to replace it just yet. Your soon-to-adjust mortgage rate may actually go lower. It's related to the math behind the ARM.

Conventional, adjustable-rate mortgages share a common life cycle:

  1. There's a "starter period" in which the interest rate remains fixed
  2. There's an initial adjustment period after the starter period called the "first adjustment"
  3. There's a subsequent annual adjustment until the loan's term expires -- usually at Year 30.

The starter period will vary from 1 to 10 years, but at the point of first adjustment, conventional ARMs become the same. A homeowner's new, adjusted mortgage rate is determined by the sum of some constant, and a variable. The constant is most often 2.25% and the variable is most often the 12-month LIBOR.

As a formula, the math looks like this:

(Adjusted Mortgage Rates) = (12-Month LIBOR) + (2.250 Percent)

LIBOR is an acronym standing for London Interbank Offered Rate. It's the rate at which banks borrow money from each other and, lately, LIBOR has been low. As a result, adjusting mortgage rates have been low, too.

Last year, 5-year ARMs were adjusting to 6 percent or higher. Today, they're adjusting to 3.375%.

Based on the math, it may be wise to just let your ARM adjust this year. Or, depending on how long you plan to stay in your home, consider a refinance to a new ARM.  Starter rates on today's adjustable rate mortgages are exceptionally low in Encinitas , as are the rates for fixed rate loans.

Either way, talk to your loan officer about making a plan. With mortgage rates as low as they've ever been in history, homeowners have some interesting options. Just don't wait too long. LIBOR -- and mortgage rates in general -- are known to change quickly.

Monday, July 12, 2010

How To Install A Ceiling Fan In Your Home

Up to 50% of your home's energy bill can be tied to heating and cooling costs.  Thankfully, it's easy to lower those bills. The addition of a ceiling fan can cut your household energy bills dramatically.

Plus, the installation may be simpler than you think.

In this 4-minute video from the Lowe's YouTube collection, you'll learn how to measure, mount and install a ceiling fan, step-by-step:

  1. Choose the right-sized fan for your room based on its "longest wall"
  2. Cut the power to your room, and test that the power is off
  3. Assemble a ceiling fan
  4. Secure a ceiling fan motor to the ceiling
  5. Restore power to the room

If you're uncomfortable around electricity, or feel the video's instructions are "too complicated", by all means, call an electrician. The money you spend on installation will be dwarfed by what you save in energy bills.

For an electrician referral in Temecula , reach out to me anytime by phone or email. I am happy to help you.

Friday, July 9, 2010

Entertainment, Julia Roberts & Oprah Winfrey

Hi Carol here, what an awesome photo of two of my favorite well known
people. Oh, look there's Gail in the back ground.

BFFs Julia Roberts and Oprah Winfrey joined Hollywood A-Listers for an
American Film Institute event honoring director Mike Nichols at Sony
Studios in Culver City, California, on Thursday.

Taken from omg.yahoo.com
Photo by: Christopher Polk

Posted via email from CarolLusidiaMorrow's Blog

The Flawed Home Price Index Shows Home Values Up 0.8 Percent

Monthly change in Home Price Index from April 2007 peak

Last week, the Case-Shiller Index reported home values up 0.8 percent across 20 tracked markets. The public-sector Federal Housing Finance Agency has reached a similar conclusion.

Reporting on a two-month lag, the government's Home Price Index shows home values up 0.8 percent in April, buoyed by the expiring federal home buyer tax credit and low mortgage rates.  It's a positive signal for a recovering housing market -- in San Diego and everywhere else.

But just because the Home Price Index says home values are rising, that doesn't mean they are. The Home Price Index methodology is flawed on multiple fronts.

First, the Home Price Index reports on a 60-day delay. This two-month lag turns the HPI a trailing indicator for the housing market instead of a forward-looking one. If you're a home buyer looking for direction, HPI won't give it to you -- you'll have to get that analysis from your real estate agent.

Second, HPI only accounts for home values in which the home's attached mortgage is backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.  As the FHA market share grows, fewer homes get included in the HPI sample set, and HPI values may be skewed high or low.

And, third, HPI doesn't account for new home sales -- only repeat ones.  This, too, eliminates a major segment of the market.

All of that said, though, the Home Price Index remains important to housing.  It's still the most comprehensive home valuation model in print and it's been giving strong readings since the start of year.  You can't ignore that on any level.

It's July and you may have missed the "rock bottom" sranch home prices from earlier in the year, but homes are still relatively inexpensive. Couple that with all-time low mortgage rates and home affordability looks excellent. Consider making an offer while the terms are right.

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Household Finances : Which Bills Should I Pay First?

Morning television can be "light", but as far as personal finance interviews go, this Suze Orman segment from The Today Show is loaded with practical financial planning advice.

Titled "What Should You Do First?", Ms. Orman addressed the real-life, money management conundrums households face, such as:

  • Should I pay off credit card bills, or create an emergency cash fund?
  • Should I pay off student loan debt, or pay off credit card bills?
  • Should I save for a child's college tuition, or save for my retirement?

In 5 minutes, the segment covers a half-dozen scenarios like the ones above, explaining what to do, and why to do it.

Ms. Orman's style may not interest you and financial advice is rarely universal, but the piece is worth watching.

Watch the clip on the NBC website.

 

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

June's Jobs Report Wasn't As Bad As The Headlines (And How You Can Take Advantage)

Net Job Gains July 2008 - June 2010In June, for the first time since December 2009, the U.S. workforce shrank.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy shed 125,000 jobs last month even as the Unemployment Rate dropped to 9.5 percent. The drop in the Unemployment Rate is being attributed to fewer Americans looking for work.

At first glance, the jobs report looks weak but a deeper look shows something different.

Excluding the 225,000 government Census workers that recently left the workforce, the total number of employed persons actually grew by 83,000 in June. That's 50,000 more working Americans as compared to May.

And, since the start of the year, the U.S. workforce has grown by 857,000.

Jobs growth is closely tied to economic growth because more working Americans means more disposable income which, in turn, stokes consumer spending. Job growth is better than job loss.

Consumer spending makes up the majority of the U.S. economy so as consumer spending grows, investor mentality tends to shifts toward "return on principal" (i.e. stock markets) from "safety of principal" (i.e. bond markets).

A move like this is often bad for home affordability because falling demand for bonds is tied to higher mortgage rates. In addition, with the growing number of Americans earning a paycheck, demand for homes is likely to increase, thereby helping to push home prices higher.

Overall, therefore, the jobs report should be bad for rate shoppers and home buyers in in San Diego. Except, the markets aren't reacting that way. For now, mortgage rates are slightly improved since the jobs report's release.

Perhaps Wall Street is watching the wrong figures, but don't let that be your loss. If you're shopping for a mortgage, a home, or both, now may be your best time to make a move; while rates are still low; with home prices down; before traders change their tune.

Because when markets change, it'll likely happen fast.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

How To Improve Your Home's Indoor Air Quality

VOCs are present in dry cleaningAn EPA study shows that close to dozen common air pollutants are 2 to 5 times more concentrated indoors versus outdoors, regardless of whether the home is is located in Rural America, or in an industrial zone.

The cause is volatile organic compounds, more commonly known as VOCs.

VOCs are gases emitted from certain liquids and solids including paints, cleaning supplies, pesticides, air fresheners and permanent markers, among others. In the short-term, can cause respiratory irritation. In the long-term, VOCs can lead to "Sick Building Syndrome", cancer and other illnesses.

There are a number of ways to keep VOC levels in your San Diego home to minimum and the EPA published some tips to help with home health safety. The advice includes:

  1. Meet or exceed all product label precautions
  2. When buying paints and chemicals, don't buy bulk. Buy only what you need. Dispose of the rest.
  3. If a product label says "use in well-ventilated area", move to the outdoors or use a fan

VOC levels can remain elevated for long periods of time even after the VOC-generating activity is completed.  Therefore, take care to protect your home and your health.

Read the EPA's complete guide to volatile organic compounds on its website.

Friday, July 2, 2010

Was The Pending Home Sales Report Really That Bad? It Depends Who You Ask -- Buyer Or Seller.

Pending Home Sales Nov 2008 to May 2010The Pending Home Sales Index plunged in May 2010, just one month after the expiration of the federal home buyer tax credit program.

The Pending Home Sales Index is now at a record-low level.

A "pending home sale" is an existing home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. According to the National Association of Realtors®, 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days.

Because of this timeline, we can expect the summer's Existing Home Sales to be weak, too. With fewer homes going under contract, fewer homes can close.

On the surface, May's Pending Home Sales Index looks like terrible news for housing. And, if you're a seller, it just might be. But, if you're a buyer, the story reads differently.  Just consider the market conditions. 

A broad look at the housing market shows:

  1. Home supplies are rising in most markets
  2. Home sales are falling in most markets
  3. Mortgage rates are at all-time lows

In other words, in most markets, more sellers are competing for fewer buyers, and the "winning" buyers are financing their homes at the lowest rates in history.

It's an excellent time to be a home buyer in Temecula.

Thursday, July 1, 2010

The Year Is Half-Over. How Did The Housing Experts Fare On Their Predictions?

Housing and mortgage rate forecastsAs 2009 was ending, the "experts" were busy making forecasts about the U.S. economy and what to expect in 2010.

With respect to the housing markets, two predictions were made again and again:

  1. Home prices would fall in the first half of 2010
  2. Mortgage rates would be higher in 2010

Well, it's July 1 and the year is half-over.  Both predictions are proving to be incorrect. Home values are rising in most markets and mortgage rates are down. Way down

It reminds us that economists are much more skilled with analysis of the past versus predictions of the future.

A pile of data can only get you so far.

Think of San Diego housing market predictions like watching a local weather forecast. A meteorologist can look at the radar and tell you that rain is coming, but it's never with 100% certainty.  There is always a chance of change.

The housing market is the same way.  Just as the U.S. economy is unpredictable, so are housing prices, and so are mortgage rates. 

Therefore, when you have a personal finance decision to make, evaluate your options based on the information at hand today rather than an educated guess about the future. The future, after all, is subject to change -- despite what the experts forecast.